Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.827773 0.970166 1.129642 1.321511 1.546160 1.800962 2.112076
2024-10-20 0.572592 0.751319 0.975004 1.275669 1.669660 2.169035 2.851279
2024-10-27 0.437372 0.621951 0.871972 1.235696 1.752211 2.460942 3.510295
2024-11-03 0.366361 0.556091 0.830116 1.255211 1.899633 2.842781 4.333726
2024-11-10 0.331901 0.532996 0.839985 1.343438 2.151032 3.400864 5.492012
2024-11-17 0.295179 0.498434 0.824423 1.386203 2.333971 3.875663 6.589313
2024-11-24 0.259381 0.458453 0.792400 1.394463 2.457933 4.268157 7.605284
2024-12-01 0.227076 0.418617 0.753511 1.382959 2.542951 4.601973 8.563489
2024-12-08 0.201068 0.385542 0.720800 1.375954 2.632150 4.951070 9.594751
2024-12-15 0.181893 0.361953 0.701341 1.389392 2.758961 5.382460 10.838453
2024-12-22 0.158202 0.326019 0.653398 1.340531 2.757457 5.568188 11.626162
2024-12-29 0.153030 0.326167 0.675299 1.432998 3.049562 6.366172 13.765144
2025-01-05 0.133976 0.295334 0.631665 1.386397 3.052426 6.587677 14.751317
2025-01-12 0.117472 0.267619 0.590879 1.340401 3.051013 6.802604 15.763660
2025-01-19 0.103594 0.243592 0.554527 1.298518 3.051853 7.021163 16.815955
2025-01-26 0.096067 0.232930 0.546209 1.319040 3.197900 7.584427 18.756305
2025-02-02 0.094092 0.235055 0.567335 1.411777 3.527922 8.618960 21.990922
2025-02-09 0.089136 0.229170 0.568724 1.456729 3.748004 9.422148 24.775238
2025-02-16 0.082569 0.218258 0.556373 1.465412 3.878062 10.022037 27.130744
2025-02-23 0.075618 0.205310 0.537108 1.453320 3.952193 10.489880 29.207579
2025-03-02 0.069620 0.194020 0.520543 1.445957 4.037837 10.999568 31.478244
2025-03-09 0.065168 0.186301 0.512311 1.460081 4.184390 11.692477 34.371141
2025-03-16 0.058435 0.171215 0.482181 1.408721 4.139689 11.855647 35.767107